Friday, August 24, 2007

The results are in... colour

On 11th August, Sierra Leone held its first locally run presidential and parliamentary election since the end of the war (the UN organised and ran the 2002 election). The elections passed very peacefully (despite the number of journalists who came to SL to follow the proceedings) and now the provisional first round count is complete. The three main parties are the SLPP (Green), the APC (Red) and the PMDC (Orange). The SLPP has been governing the country for the past 10 years and has its power base in the south and east of the country. The APC (main opposition party) held power a great deal between independence and the civil war and have their power base in the north of SL. The PMDC (about 15 months old) are a break-away group from the SLPP; some people say that the leader (Charles Margai) wanted to develop a new party, without the stagnation and corruption that some feel has crept into the SLPP ranks after a decade in power and felt that there needs to be change. Others say that he was peeved about not getting the presidential candidacy for the SLPP (it went to the current Vice President Solomon Berewa) and so set up a rival party that would decrease the number of people voting for Berewa/the SLPP as revenge on the SLPP for not giving Margai the presidential candidacy. Anyway, whichever reasons were behind the formation of the PMDC, they have done remarkably well for a party that is so young and there is potential that they could change the anticipated outcome of the second round of elections.

So, the results will be officially announced tomorrow and will give a Koroma-Berewa (APC-SLPP) run-off on Saturday September 8th, with the final results likely in the following week. Ernest Bai Koroma (APC/Red) ended up with 44.3% of the vote, Charles Margai (PMDC/Orange) with 13.9% and Solomon Berewa (SLPP/Green) with 38.3%.

Margai (PMDC/Orange) has declared his desire for change in government and therefore his support for Koroma (APC/Red) and so it’s a big ask for the SLPP to come back from this, especially with Koroma and Margai campaigning together and at least some southern PMDC leaders indicating they are going to stick with their leader and back change. The result will probably hang on whether Margai’s supporters from the first round stick with his intention of backing the APC (which traditionally they oppose since the political parties are roughly based on tribal groupings), or return to their original party and support the SLPP. This has been a huge wake-up call for the SLPP (some would even say it’s their eviction notice), the governing party had predicted another easy victory (as in 2002, when outgoing President Ahmad Tejan Kabbah won the election easily with 70% of the votes) but it under-estimated the level of resentment in Sierra Leone over a perceived lack of development since the end of the war and high levels of corruption.

The parliamentary results are also out and the APC ended up with a majority of 59 seats including all 21 in the Western Area (where Freetown is); the PMDC won 10 seats and the SLPP 43. There are also 12 Paramount Chief MPs yet to be selected, which could lead to a hung parliament. This is a big shift in the balance of power in the country already, even if Berewa (of the SLPP) does become President, so watch this space and we'll see where and how things end up after/during the next round of elections.

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